Thomas fingar 3 books and monographs reducing uncertainty. The national commission on terrorist attacks upon the united states, the 911 commission report washington. In particular, it looks at why ic analysts pay more attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to focus more on warning about the. Improving the communication of uncertainty in climate science and intelligence analysis by emily h. The role of analysis in the national security enterprise the primary purpose of intelligence is to reduce uncertainty and clarify what we do not know. Thomas fingar, former chair of the national intelligence committee, speaks to members and guest of the world affairs council of inland. By drawing on a body of nearly 400 declassified national intelligence estimates as. What i learned in 40 years of doing intelligence analysis for us foreign policy makers. The role of analysis in the national security enterprise the primary purpose of intelligence is to reduce uncertainty and clarify what we do not know about the issues confronting those who make decisions affecting our nation. As such, it may contain some conversion errors andor missing information. Occasional paper artificial intelligence and uk national.
Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in national and international security, serving as key sources of information for a wide range of decisionmakers including state leaders, policy makers. Pub pl 476 homeland security intelligence by the american flag, dhs flag, and border. Bush when i was chief of staff to secretary of state colin powell, the only person who spent more time in my office than the secretary was tom fingar. Fingar argues that analysts primary mission is to provide. Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading reducing uncertainty. Occasional paper artificial intelligence and uk national security.
Reducing uncertainty intelligence analysis and national. Improving the communication of uncertainty in climate science. In particular, it looks at why intelligence community analysts pay more attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to focus more on warning about the possibility of bad things happening than on providing the input necessary for increasing the likelihood of positive outcomes. Reducing uncertainty describes what intelligence community analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and. The author is a senior lecturer in intelligence and security studies at charles sturt. Tom fingars distillation of lessons learned during more than two decades at the nexus of intelligence analysis and national security decisionmaking is clear, concise, and brimming with insight. Legal and ethical considerations 21 legal framework 21 machine intrusion 24 collection and retention 26 testing and deployment 28 iii. Thomas fingar, the 2009 payne distinguished lecturer and former deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and chairman of the national intelligence council, will give the first 2009 payne distinguished lecture on wednesday, march 11, 2009, 4. The intelligence community ic plays an essential role in the national security of the united states. Improving intelligence analysis with decision science. Regulation, guidance and oversight 33 existing guidance 33. Background to assessing russian activities and intentions. The mission of intelligence analysis is to evaluate, integrate, and interpret. Summary the us government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty.
Our full analysis and recommendations will be made in our final report. His 35 years led him to the top of the ic at the state department from 2001 to 2003. Jul 20, 2011 reducing uncertainty describes what intelligence community analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. Decision makers rely on ic analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. May 19, 2009 customers in the national security enterprise by providing information and insights that reduce uncertainty about what is happening, what is likely to happen, and what can be done to ensure or prevent specific developments. Thomas fingar, former chair of the national intelligence committee, speaks to members and guest of the world affairs council of inland southern californi. Fingar argues that analysts primary mission is to provide timely information and insights that help decision. Before using this unit, we are encourages you to read this user guide in order for this unit to.
Assessing uncertainty in intelligence scholars at harvard. The theme for the 2009 series is reducing uncertainty. Reducing uncertainty describes what intelligence community analysts do, how. Before using this unit, we are encourages you to read this user guide in order for this unit to function. Background to assessing russian activities and intentions in. The tradecraft standards for analytic products have been refined over the past ten years. An educated consumer is our best customer, by dennis c. Intelligence analysis and national security by fingar at over 30 bookstores. Decision research on forecasting accuracy the ic instructs analysts to be accurate e. In particular, it looks at why intelligence community analysts pay more attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to focus more on.
Using intelligence to anticipate and shape the future. Brent scowcroft, national security advisor to presidents ford and george h. Thomas fingar is a shorenstein aparc fellow in the freeman spogli institute for international studies at stanford university. Intelligence analysis and national security ebook written by thomas fingar. Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. National security uses of ai 7 automation of organisational processes 9 cyber security 10 augmented intelligence analysis 11 adversarial ai 16 ii. Intelligence analysis and national security stanford, ca. His most recent books are from mandate to blueprint.
In chapter 1, thomas fingar provides an overview of the structure, missions, and characteristics of the intelligence community ic, and describes the role of analysis in reducing uncertainty, providing warning, and identifying opportunities for national security decision makers. Download for offline reading, highlight, bookmark or take notes while you read reducing uncertainty. Intelligence analysis and national security 9780804775946. The mission of the intelligence community is to seek to reduce the uncertainty surrounding foreign. Thomas fingar reducing uncertainty intelligence analysis and. The us government spends billions of dollars every year to reduce uncertainty. In particular, it looks at why ic analysts pay more attention to threats than to opportunities, and why they appear to focus more on warning about the possibility of bad things happening than on providing the input necessary for increasing the likelihood of positive outcomes. Intelligence analysis and national security written by kate drew this pdf is autogenerated for reference only. On these issues of great importance to us national security, the goal of intelligence analysis is to provide assessments to decisionmakers that are intellectually rigorous, objective, timely, and useful, and that adhere to tradecraft standards. Reducing uncertainty should be required reading for all who produce, use, or think about intelligence. Carter journalism institute, where she is pursing a dual degree in. Security intelligence continues to be of central importance in a world characterized by a wide range of risks and high levels of uncertainty. Intelligence analysis and national security written by kate drew about the author.
As the intelligence community ic seeks to reduce uncertainty and provide warning about potential threats to the national security of the united states, it faces increasing demands for analyses that are accurate, actionable, and properly qualified, so that decision makers know how much confidence the analyses warrant. If this prediction turned out to be correct, the analyst would earn a hit. The us intelligence community ic faced truly dramatic change in the decade following the terrorist attacks of 911, and dr. In other words, we spend a lot of money to anticipate problems, identify opportunities, and avoid mistakes. Improving policy maker understanding of intelligence. The national commission on terrorist attacks upon the united states, the 911 commission report washington, dc. Lessons from intelligence reform stanford university press, 2021, reducing uncertainty. Payne distinguished lecture series 2009 reducing uncertainty. Heroes and villains at the same time, these characters warp some of the most crucial government agencies until little truth is left, but thrilling stories remain. On these issues of great importance to us national security, the goal of intelligence analysis is to provide assessments to decisionmakers that are intellectually rigorous, objective, timely, and useful. Brent scowcroft national security advisor to presidents ford and george h. The committee believes that consistent interpretation of section 3610, particularly as it relates to work conducted at contractor facilities, cost reimbursement methodology, adjustments in payment plans, and adjustments in contract periods of performance, is essential to reducing uncertainty and sustaining a vibrant national security sector. One way to do this would be to ask her to make a single prediction. Intelligence analysis and national security stanford university press, 2011, the new great game.
Intelligence analysis and national security stanford. Intelligence analysis and national security reducing uncertainty. Much of the theory and practice of estimative intelligence aims to eliminate or reduce uncertainty, but this is often impossible or infeasible. Intelligence analysis and national security by thomas fingar 2011, trade paperback at the best online prices at ebay. Intelligence analysis and national security paperback at. He was the inaugural oksenbergrohlen distinguished fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the payne distinguished lecturer at stanford in 2009. Intelligence analysis and national security as want to read. Lowenthal17 states that the main role of intelligence is to reduce uncertainty, which is problematic. Intelligence analysis and national security kindle edition by fingar, thomas. Intelligence analysis and national security stanford university press, 2011. For all formal use please refer to the official version on the website, as linked below. For an example of deliberately asking questions, see. The most valuable aspect of this book is the indepth discussion of national intelligence estimateswhat they are. Reducing uncertainty describes what intelligence community analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output.
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